Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 15.710127 19.058641 22.762863 27.139520 32.143466 37.660219 44.175498
2025-11-23 10.428028 14.628241 19.783875 26.467747 34.786433 44.679665 57.206133
2025-11-30 8.059951 12.677343 18.814079 27.326240 38.566146 52.630404 71.260189
2025-12-07 6.098728 10.691056 17.259052 26.932442 40.370424 57.912032 82.015945
2025-12-14 4.872933 9.431473 16.391524 27.185180 42.828743 63.966697 93.876503
2025-12-21 3.621481 7.816890 14.688252 25.931063 42.939042 66.718685 101.338589
2025-12-28 3.034842 7.173889 14.351185 26.601632 45.755442 73.234485 114.096521
2026-01-04 2.508583 6.508053 13.851029 26.911104 47.983477 78.955217 125.923844
2026-01-11 2.108824 5.987329 13.504336 27.392105 50.447569 85.073241 138.499842
2026-01-18 1.814813 5.612847 13.353146 28.154773 53.358563 91.935092 152.360446
2026-01-25 1.443193 4.956114 12.558174 27.691082 54.217955 95.698242 161.774708
2026-02-01 1.210264 4.566303 12.221119 27.991295 56.317522 101.404720 174.226201
2026-02-08 0.965750 4.086144 11.661517 27.900212 57.887496 106.579034 186.439724
2026-02-15 0.725685 3.521535 10.817489 27.172190 58.311627 109.982338 196.144063
2026-02-22 0.619700 3.331940 10.790341 28.045707 61.605070 118.125544 213.441003
2026-03-01 0.474342 2.933368 10.180328 27.643707 62.535028 122.405324 224.793765
2026-03-08 0.383265 2.688414 9.903653 27.901599 64.677495 128.758970 239.610653
2026-03-15 0.264426 2.239454 8.979459 26.621747 63.796547 129.933983 246.111621
2026-03-22 0.221016 2.114500 8.932411 27.306110 66.736237 137.748658 263.611273
2026-03-29 0.177132 1.952031 8.738709 27.621922 68.955001 144.376993 279.337273
2026-04-05 0.144251 1.825047 8.625648 28.112744 71.541686 151.730250 296.452578
2026-04-12 0.121122 1.740609 8.631315 28.890905 74.748045 160.282114 315.781897
2026-04-19 0.086920 1.530203 8.160785 28.417806 75.329021 164.131896 327.291404